“Many people think desertification affects only Africa, Asia or Latin America,” Juan Sanchez, a department head at the Centre for Research on Desertification (CIDE) near Valencia. “But we are also at risk.”

Most of Spain suffers dry spells but in key regions aridity has become chronic, driven by human development and changing rainfall patterns — and worse is likely to come.

Around a seventh of Spain is at high risk of desertification, according to CIDE’s estimates. Spain is not alone in this problem, for much of the northern Mediterranean rim faces worsening water stress.

It singled out southern Spain, along with southern Italy, Greece and Turkey as regions where the “recharge season” of replenishing aquifers with fresh rainfall would shorten dramatically, reducing water for farms, cities and hydropower plants.

The problem is being worsened by water-thirsty businesses such as tourism, golf courses and farm irrigation, by pollution and by roads and buildings which drain water away rather than let the precious substance soak into the soil.

A big focus of their research is local soil erosion.

The region suffers devastating fires in the summer and is then drenched for several days every autumn by torrential rains. Another problem is rising salt levels, caused by irrigation.

Climate change is “linked to desertification in a lot of ways,” he said.